Are You Too Confident?

If you haven't been humbled by this market, then perhaps this test will offer some assistance. 

Research shows that we tend to be overconfident when we guess at the range of answers to various scenarios. 

I scored miserably, confirming the research and joining the ranks of the overconfident. 

http://tim-richardson.net/misc/estimation_quiz.html

 

Posted by Doug MacKay at 11/21/2008 1:19 PM
Categories: uncategorized
 

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  • 11/21/2008 4:45 PM Rob MacKay wrote:
    Pretty cool quiz. I only managed to get one right.
    1. 11/21/2008 4:49 PM Doug MacKay wrote:
      I only got 3 right.  It seems that the more precise you try to be, the worse you will do.  Lisa got 5.
      You can get all nine by having huge ranges, but that sort of defeats the purpose in what they are trying to measure.
      Yes, cool quiz.
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